Natural+Gas+DAs**

Some notes for the natural gas generic.

=NATURAL GAS GENERIC=

Natural Gas DAs – HIGH PRICES GOOD (FLARING)
This disadvantage links to plans that lower the price of natural gas, such as RPS and other positive incentives for renewables. A. Natural gas prices are high now B. When natural gas prices are low, producers will flare C. Flaring causes global warming (faster than burning CO2)

Example Shell:
A) UNIQUENESS: NATURAL GAS PRICES AT RECORD HIGH

Mark Peters, Dow Jones Newswire, June 30, 2008, “US Gas: Futures Hit 29 Month High,” 6/30/08 (Dow Jones Newswire)

Natural gas futures hit a new 29-month high as prices climbed Monday, fueled by record oil prices and continued supply concerns.

Natural gas for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 16.7 cents, or 1.27%, higher at $13.365 a million British thermal units after opening floor trade 19.2 cents higher at $13.39/MMBtu. Futures reached $13.448 in combined floor and electronic trading, the highest price since December 2005.

"This week's natural gas trade should generally seek guidance from the petroleum complex unless the temperature forecasts provide some major shifts," wrote Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, in a note to clients Monday.

B) LINK: THE ENTIRE WORLD WOULD DEMAND THE USE OF NEW ALTERNATIVE ENERGY INSTEAD OF NATURAL GAS

Suad M. Al-Fattah, Writer for Petroleum Online, April 27, 2006, “Time Series Modeling for U.S. Natural Gas Forecasting.” Nontraditional oil and gas exploration will provide the rest of the energy needed to satisfy the American and global hunger for energy. It is clear that American reserves of oil and natural gas are not sufficient to satisfy the needs of American industry, and foreign oil is becoming increasingly expensive in both monetary and political terms. As conventional oil supplies run out there will be serious problems with energy production, both in America and worldwide. As alternative energy supplies become cost effective, alternative energy will supplement and eventually replace the scarce and environmentally unfriendly traditional fossil fuels. Alternative energy is becoming popular not only in the USA, but around the world, in India, Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Australia, Scotland, England, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, Uganda, Nigeria, and Brazil, and many other places. The most exciting area in energy today is alternative energy, and there are many opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors and companies that are interested in this field

C) INTERNAL LINK: FLARING IS DONE WHEN IT IS CHEAPER THAN EXTRACTION, BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS BECOMING PROFITABLE TO EXTRACT

NewScientist Environment, Rising prices could end wastful gas flaring, 6/12/07 (http://environment.newscientist.com/article/dn12250)

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that 168 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas were flared in 2006 – equivalent to 27% of the US natural gas consumption (read NOAA's gas flaring report). NOAA says the flared gas could have fetched $69 billion if sold. "Until you start to put real value into gas prices, you might as well flare. But now gas prices are getting to the point where it's worth collecting," says Jonathan Stern of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in the UK.

D) INTERNAL LINK: GAS FLARING KILLS THE ENVIRONMENT AND STOPPING IT IS KEY TO PREVENTING GLOBAL WARMING

Africa News, Nigeria; When’ll Shifting Goal Posts for Gas Flare End?, 12/27/07 (http://www.lexisnexis.com:80/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4066175829&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T4066175839&cisb=22_T4066175838&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8320&docNo=2)

"Gas flaring is a major contributor to the stock of green house gases in the atmosphere thus adding to the climate change chaos. Continuation of gas flaring is a direct negation of the determined stand taken by nations of the world to flight climate change in practical terms. Gas flaring contributes to reduction in farm yields but with more far reaching implications on man in form of respiratory illnesses, asthma, blood disorders, cancer, painful breathing and chronic bronchitis, among others", Nnimmo said. According to the environmentalist, all oil-prospecting companies in Nigeria are guilty of gas flaring. He said the biggest culprits are Shell Petroleum Development Company, ExxonMobil and Chevron.

E) IMPACT: GLOBAL WARMING CAUSES DROUGHT, FLOODS, DISEASE, AND MASS EXTINCTION, LEAVING BILLIONS WITHOUT ENOUGH WATER TO LIVE BY 2050

The Straits Times, 4/7/07

TOP climate scientists issued their bleakest assessment yet on global warming yesterday, with a warning that billions of people could go thirsty as water supplies dry up and millions more may starve as farmlands become deserts. Poor tropical countries that are least to blame for causing the problem will be worst hit, said the report. Small island states, Asia's big river deltas, the Arctic, and sub-Saharan Africa are also at risk. Global warming could also rapidly thaw Himalayan glaciers that feed rivers from India to China, and bring heat waves to Europe and North America. The dire warnings came from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The final text of a 21-page Summary for Policymakers was agreed on after an all-night session marked by serious disputes. Scientists from more than 100 countries made up the panel. Their report forms the second of a four-part climate assessment, with the final section to be released early next month in Bangkok. Its findings are approved unanimously by governments and will guide policy on issues such as extending the United Nation's Kyoto Protocol, the main plan for capping greenhouse gas emissions, beyond 2012. The grim 1,400-page report issued yesterday said change, widely blamed on human emissions of greenhouse gases, was already under way in nature. The IPCC noted that damage to the earth's weather systems was changing rainfall patterns, punching up the power of storms and boosting the risk of drought, flooding and stress on water supplies. Some scientists even called the degree-by-degree projection a 'highway to extinction'. Add 1 deg C to the earth's average temperatures and between 400 million and 1.7 billion more people cannot get enough water. Add another 1.8 deg C and as many as two billion people could be without water, and about 20 per cent to 30 per cent of the world's species face extinction. More people will also start dying because of malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and droughts. This could happen as early as 2050. 'Changes in climate are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent,' said the report. University of Michigan ecologist Rosina Bierbaum, former head of the United States' IPCC delegation, said: 'It is clear that a number of species are going to be lost.' Mr Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the IPCC, said: 'It's the poorest of the poor in the world, and this includes poor people even in prosperous societies, who are going to be the worst hit. 'This does become a global responsibility in my view.’

Natural Gas DAs – HIGH PRICES BAD (INDUSTRIES)
This disadvantage links to plans that raise natural gas prices, such as cap and trade and hydrogen. A. Natural gas prices are relatively low now B. Plan increases natural gas prices C. High natural gas prices collapse the economy (especially through the chemical industry and metal production)

Example Shell:
NATURAL GAS PRICES LOW –INCREASED PRODUCTION OFFSET DEMAND

Floyd Norris, chief financial correspondent of The New York Times, 11-10-07, The New York Times, “As Oil Soars, Natural Gas Is a Bargain”, lexis

As oil prices surged over the last few months, natural gas prices in the United States did something that could help to cushion the economic shock. They fell. A result is that those who heat their homes with natural gas -- by far the dominant fuel in the United States -- will see prices roughly in line with last winter's. But for those who use heating oil, as many do in the Northeast, prices seem likely to be about 50 percent higher than they were last winter. Oil and gas prices have never moved in lock step, in part because each has different users. But the bigger reason is that one is part of a global market and the other is not. Tankers can move oil or refined products to anywhere from anywhere, and will do so if prices rise in one region relative to those in another. Growing demand for oil in Asia, as well as fears of instability in the Middle East, have helped to raise oil prices. Natural gas, on the other hand, has limited worldwide transportation. The market for liquefied natural gas is growing, and is a significant part of energy planning in China and other countries. But there is little capacity to move L.N.G. out of the United States if prices here fail to keep up with those in other parts of the world, as they have this year. While some power plants can shift between oil and natural gas, most users cannot, no matter how much prices get out of line. And they are out of line now. Oil costs about 60 percent more than it did two years ago, but natural gas is selling for about a third less than it was during the winter of 2005-6, when there were fears of natural gas shortages. It has been more than a decade since the United States headed into a winter with natural gas this cheap relative to oil. The charts show what has happened this year, focusing on futures contracts for delivery of oil and natural gas in February, at the height of the winter. They also look at the prices of February contracts as winter was approaching in past years. At the end of 2006, oil for delivery in February 2008 cost $67.18 per barrel, while natural gas for delivery then was selling for $8.90 per million B.T.U.'s. Starting this summer, the price of oil began to soar, to the point that it exceeded $94 a barrel this week. But gas costs a little less than it did at the end of last year. On a relative basis -- comparing the amount of energy bought with a dollar's worth of oil with a dollar's worth of natural gas -- the price for gas is now about half that of oil. That was the ratio prevailing back in 1990 and 1991, when the gas bubble of excess American production was viewed as holding down natural gas prices. It is the opposite of what happened two years ago, when gas became scarce and prices surged to levels well above those of oil. The fact that natural gas prices have not risen could be good news for the American economy, which has been troubled by reports of slowing retail sales as home prices fall. Americans will be paying much more for gasoline and home heating oil this winter, but those who heat with gas -- assuming unexpected weather does not cause big price movements -- could end up both warm and with enough money to buy other things.

CAP AND TRADE RAISES THE PRICE OF NATURAL GAS BY 20%

NCPP, National Center for Public Policy research, June 2008, Casey LArtigue, former policy analyst with Cato's Center for Educational Freedom and Ryan Balis, The Lieberman-Warner Cap and Trade Bill: Quick Summary and Analysis, http://www.nationalcenter.org/NPA570.html Financial Burden Meeting the goals of the Lieberman-Warner cap-and-trade plan would impose enormous financial strain on Americans, according to four independent econometric studies. A study commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) projects that by 2014 retail gasoline prices would increase between 13 and 50 percent; residential electricity prices would rise between 13 and 14 percent; and natural gas prices would increase between 18 and 21 percent. The study, "Analysis of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act (S.2191) using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS/ACCF/NAM)," also projects that the U.S. economy will suffer employment losses of 850,000 jobs by 2014 and between 1.2 and over 1.8 million more lost jobs in 2020.4

GAS PRISE RISE DESTROYS CHEMICAL INDUSTRY AND COMPETITIVENESS

New York Times, September 28th 2005, As Natural Gas Prices Rise, So Do the Costs of Things Made of Chemicals, http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/28/business/28chemical.html

High prices are a double whammy for the chemical industry. Natural gas is both its main fuel and its main raw material, the starting point for the basic chemicals from which the fibers and compounds in shirts, eyeglasses and even the wrappers for single-serve soups are derived. "Chemical companies have been under assault for several years," said Robert Koort, an analyst at Goldman Sachs who has an attractive rating on the chemical sector. Diane H. Gulyas, chief marketing officer of DuPont, said that, if anything, the hurricanes "acted as a wake-up call." "It made us all realize how shocking the underlying fundamentals of our business have become," she said. The industry has passed along costs, and it is likely to continue doing so for now. Since Katrina, almost every chemical company has announced price increases. The trickledown effect to retail shelves is inevitable - soda and water come in plastic bottles, computers use plastic housings, even organic greenmarkets pack fruits and vegetables in plastic bags. "Consumers can expect to pay more for everything, from medicines to auto parts to computers to shampoo," said Kevin Swift, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council, a trade association. But industry specialists worry that if high gas prices curb consumer spending, the days of passing along constant price increases may end. "The uncompetitive natural gas price in the U.S. is a long-term problem," said Gordon E. Slack, business director for Dow energy business, who said that high gas prices had turned the chemical industry from a net exporter to a net importer. Those rising prices have effectively wiped out the American chemical industry's main competitive edge. Whereas most overseas chemical plants derive most of their raw materials from oil, gas has long been the feedstock of choice here. According to Mr. Swift, natural gas accounts for about 60 percent of the value of chemicals made here. Indeed, many chemical companies clustered their plants along the Gulf Coast, where so much gas is produced, to take advantage of what Mr. Slack called "the best natural gas prices in the world."

CHEMICALS ARE KEY TO THE ECONOMY National Technical Information Service, May 25th 2001, http://www.technology.gov/Reports/Chemicals/chemical.htm The Chemical Industry Today The U.S. chemical industry is vital to the U.S. economy. It produces 1.9 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). It is the nation's number one exporter. It supplies more than $1 out of every $10 of U.S. exports and consistently runs large international trade surpluses. It is a high-tech, research and development (R&D) oriented industry that is awarded about one out of every eight U.S. patents. It employs over one million people at wages well above the U.S. manufacturing average, and it produces over 70,000 different products. Most importantly, chemicals is a "keystone" industry -- one critical to the global competitiveness of other U.S. industries. Because so many modern products depend on chemicals, the international competitiveness of other U.S. industries requires a high-tech, globally competitive U.S. chemical industry that can supply new products at prices that give U.S. producers an edge.

US ECONOMIC DECLINE CAUSES NUCLEAR WAR

Cook 07 (Richard C. Cook, 6/14/07, Writer, Consultant, and Retired Federal Analyst - U.S. Treasury Department, "It's Official: The Crash of the U.S. Economy has begun," http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=5964)

Times of economic crisis produce international tension and politicians tend to go to war rather than face the economic music. The classic example is the worldwide depression of the 1930s leading to World War II. Conditions in the coming years could be as bad as they were then. We could have a really big war if the U.S. decides once and for all to haul off and let China, or whomever, have it in the chops. If they don’t want our dollars or our debt any more, how about a few nukes?

Natural Gas DAs – CANADA
This disadvantage links to plans that decrease demand for natural gas. A. Natural gas is increasing now B. Natural gas demand is key to relations with Canada C. US-Canadian relations good (terrorism, economy, etc.)

Natural Gas DAs – RUSSIA
This disadvantage links to plans that decrease demand for natural gas. A. Natural gas is increasing now B. Natural gas demand is key to relations with Russia C. US-Russian relations good (war, terrorism, economy, etc.)

Natural Gas DAs – LNG
This disadvantage links to plans that decrease demand for natural gas. A. LNG is inevitable B. Strong LNG industry is key to safety measures C. LNG explosions bad

- OR -

This disadvantage links to plans that decrease demand for natural gas. A. US demand for natural gas is increasing B. Electricity renewables trade off with natural gas C. Demand for natural gas key to LNG D. LNG key to economy (and other things – producer nations economies’, etc.)