IPR+Neg+-+Case+Turns

1. Antiretroviral treatment without an increase in counseling increases the spread of AIDs and worsens HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa because it increases unsafe sex PLoS Medicine, Public Library of Science, 3/14/06, “Antiretroviral Use in Resource-Poor Settings: Modeling Its Impact,” http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030179, [IK]

Many challenges need to be overcome to achieve universal access to ART, not least of which is determining how to maximize the benefits of ART to patients and their communities in resource-poor settings. Regional differences in health-care facilities, local changes in sexual behavior in response to treatment, and many other factors can alter how ART affects both HIV transmission rates and HIV/AIDS mortality. Ideally, the best strategy for each setting would be determined through large-scale randomized trials of different approaches—for example, the time at which treatment is initiated relative to the time of infection—with HIV prevalence and HIV/AIDS–related mortality as primary endpoints. However, such trials are lengthy and costly, so researchers and policy makers are also using mathematical models to explore the impacts of different treatment and monitoring strategies. Rebecca Baggaley and colleagues now describe a new approach to modeling the impact of ART in resource-poor settings. Their model predicts that HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa will not be controlled through ART alone, even if universal access is achieved. Additional prevention methods such as counseling patients and their communities about safe sex are essential. Without them, their results suggest, access to ART is likely to increase HIV/AIDS prevalence. The researchers' deterministic model of HIV transmission incorporates ART and stratifies infection progression into four different stages (primary infection, incubation, pre-AIDS, and AIDS), each of which is associated with a different degree of infectiousness. In effect, the model is a complex flowchart through which patients move inexorably as they become infected and receive treatment—which can fail (virologic failure) or succeed (long-term viral suppression)—or from which they can withdraw. Sexual behavior and changes in sexual behavior in response to HIV/AIDS and ART is also plugged into the model—people treated with antiretrovirals often become more sexually active as they begin to feel better. Effective counseling, on the other hand, can increase safe-sex practices. To turn this flowchart into predictions of how HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa might develop over time given different ART strategies and, for example, the availability of diagnostic laboratories to monitor the immune status and viral load of individuals with HIV, the researchers used published estimates of relevant parameters such as the fraction of patients that drop out at each stage of treatment and the transmission probability per sexual partnership for patients in whom ART failed. Baggaley and her colleagues make several predictions. They suggest, for example, that unlimited ART provision initiated once patients have developed AIDS will increase the prevalence of infection (because the patients live longer and become sexually active again), a worrying result given that one aim of the universal access initiative is to reduce HIV infection rates. Furthermore, although different coverage levels in this scenario will not affect the years of life gained per person-year of treatment, increased coverage will increase the emergence and spread of drug resistance. If pre-AIDS patients are treated as well, the researchers predict that additional infections will be averted per person-year of treatment, but the effect will be small and highly dependent on how pre-AIDS patients change their sexual behavior in response to ART.

2. ARV treatment creates a more deadly supervirus through mutations in the virus Dr. S.V. Bulatov, registered homeopath, Iridologist and Nutritionist, July 2004, “HIV/AIDS/TB Solution for South Africa”, http://www.soulzentre.co.za/articles/archive/hiv_aids_tb_solution.htm, [SL]

The effort to manufacture a vaccine is a complete waste of time. The HIV is extremely fast changing retrovirus. It is technically impossible to create a vaccine. Everyone knows from experience that even the flu vaccine does not work always. It causes more suppression and damage than preventing the flu. The manufacturing of new ARV's is reasonable to a point. They decrease the viral load in the blood and help severe cases temporarily. They should be prescribed after thorough clinical assessment. The patient should be closely monitored. The change of the ARV's should be done as often as needed by the clinical condition of the patient. The immune system and the whole body should be strengthened as that increases the efficiency of the ARV's and decreases its side effects. The ARV`s cannot do much about the viral load in the lymph nodes, spleen and bone marrow. The side effects of these drugs are quite disastrous. The DNA of every single cell in the body is affected and the whole metabolism changes drastically. The use of ARV's creates mutations in the virus. This process gradually leads to developing of strains that will create SUPERVIRUS that will be extremely difficult to control later.

3. A virus deadlier than HIV that is drug-resistant and constantly mutating threatens extinction South China Moring Post, Kavita Daswani, 1/4/96, “Leading the Way to a Cure for AIDs,” Lexis, [IK]

Despite the importance of the discovery of the "facilitating" cell, it is not what Dr Ben-Abraham wants to talk about. There is a much more pressing medical crisis at hand - one he believes the world must be alerted to: the possibility of a virus deadlier than HIV. If this makes Dr Ben-Abraham sound like a prophet of doom, then he makes no apology for it. AIDS, the Ebola outbreak which killed more than 100 people in Africa last year, the flu epidemic that has now affected 200,000 in the former Soviet Union - they are all, according to Dr Ben-Abraham, the "tip of the iceberg". Two decades of intensive study and research in the field of virology have convinced him of one thing: in place of natural and man-made disasters or nuclear warfare, humanity could face extinction because of a single virus, deadlier than HIV. "An airborne virus is a lively, complex and dangerous organism," he said. "It can come from a rare animal or from anywhere and can mutate constantly. If there is no cure, it affects one person and then there is a chain reaction and it is unstoppable. It is a tragedy waiting to happen." That may sound like a far-fetched plot for a Hollywood film, but Dr Ben -Abraham said history has already proven his theory. Fifteen years ago, few could have predicted the impact of AIDS on the world. Ebola has had sporadic outbreaks over the past 20 years and the only way the deadly virus - which turns internal organs into liquid - could be contained was because it was killed before it had a chance to spread. Imagine, he says, if it was closer to home: an outbreak of that scale in London, New York or Hong Kong. It could happen anytime in the next 20 years - theoretically, it could happen tomorrow. The shock of the AIDS epidemic has prompted virus experts to admit "that something new is indeed happening and that the threat of a deadly viral outbreak is imminent", said Joshua Lederberg of the Rockefeller University in New York, at a recent conference. He added that the problem was "very serious and is getting worse". Dr Ben-Abraham said: "Nature isn't benign. The survival of the human species is not a preordained evolutionary programme. Abundant sources of genetic variation exist for viruses to learn how to mutate and evade the immune system." He cites the 1968 Hong Kong flu outbreak as an example of how viruses have outsmarted human intelligence. And as new "mega-cities" are being developed in the Third World and rainforests are destroyed, disease-carrying animals and insects are forced into areas of human habitation. "This raises the very real possibility that lethal, mysterious viruses would, for the first time, infect humanity at a large scale and imperil the survival of the human race," he said.

7. ARV treatment without proper nutrition is ineffective and worsens the condition of the patient UN Integrated Regional Information Networks, December 18, 2006, “Poor Nutrition Nullifies Benefit of ARV Treatment” [L/N] [SL]

The poor nutrition often experienced by HIV-positive Zambians on antiretroviral [ARV] drug treatment is nullifying the benefits of the medicine, health experts are warning. "Whenever I take my ARVs without eating anything, I begin to feel dizzy and sometimes I even vomit - I generally feel very weak in my body; I have to be in bed for some time unless I took the drugs after eating," Elizabeth Mukwendi, a resident in the capital, Lusaka, one of thousands on ARVs, told IRIN/PlusNews. "We sold all our assets, including the only car we had while my late husband was sick, to pay for his medication, and this is why I am unable to buy food at the moment. Doctors have often advised me not to be taking ARVs without food but then, there is also the problem of drugs becoming resistant if I keep skipping because of not having food," Mukwendi said. ARVs slow down the reproduction rate of the HIV virus and delays progression to AIDS, but in the absence of good nutrition, experts warn that taking the drugs becomes just as bad as not taking them. According to Nkandu Luo, Zambia's first woman professor and a former health minister, "It is like having two evils acting together in your body. Taking ARVs where there is no food only compounds the problem, because some of these drugs are toxic and, hence, they affect the body unless they are taken with the recommended food values."