SS+Japanese+Soft+Power+DA+-+Security+Council

A. Japan-China relations are high. AFX News Limited, 07.24.07 (“Japan official says ties with China 'better than ever'”, http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/afx/2007/07/24/afx3944054.html) [Ha]

Japan's relationship with China is 'better than ever' and both countries are working to ensure ties remain stable, a Japanese official said here.

'The Sino-Japanese relationship has never been better than it is for many years,' Tomohiko Taniguchi, deputy press secretary of Japan's foreign ministry, said.

'We are optimistic that the bilateral relationship is going to be stabilized at least for the time being,' said Taniguchi, who is visiting Hong Kong for a regional cultural forum.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who is facing tough elections on Sunday, has cited repairing relations with China as a key achievement of his 10-month tenure.

B. Japanese foreign aid is key to its bid for a permanent Security Council seat. Kyodo News International, 2005 (“FOCUS: Japan revs up African aid to muster support for UNSC bid”, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0XPQ/is_2005_June_13/ai_n13831430/pg_1) [Ha]

It would make Japan's contribution less visible at a time when Japan is lobbying to win a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council, the source said. Japan is calling for broad support (for its bid) from African countries.

For Japan, obtaining support from African countries, which account for a quarter of the U.N. member states, is crucial for its bid to win a permanent seat on the Security Council.

The so-called Group of Four Security Council hopefuls -- Brazil, Germany, India and Japan -- are preparing to jointly submit a resolution in late June or July to the U.N. General Assembly to expand the Security Council to give the four new permanent seats.

The four countries hope a decision on Security Council reform will be made during the U.N. Millennium summit in September.

Under the circumstances, it is no surprise that Japan is stepping up its efforts to do something for African countries before submitting the resolution.

During the G-8 financial meeting in London, Japan presented a package of measures to spur the private sector-driven development of Africa, which Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said has drawn a positive response from African countries.

== C. This will decrease Japan-China relations which will erupt into conflict. International Herald Tribune, ‘05 (“Beijing and Tokyo keep tension high”, [|http://www.iht.com//articles/2005/04/14/news/beijing.php])

Shi said that the recent flare-up reflected the two countries' rising international aspirations. Japan is seeking a permanent seat on the UN Security Council as a sign of its international stature, while China is seeking to play a more prominent role in international decisions. Both countries are competing for influence in the region. China, along with some other Asian countries, has opposed Japan's bid for a UN seat on the grounds that Japan has shown insufficient contrition for wartime aggression. But Shi said the causes of the recent troubles ran deeper. "There are structural tensions between China and Japan, because they're both rising powers, and the question of history just adds emotional weight to those tensions," he said. "Things look bad; this isn't a temporary downturn in relations." There were some signs on Thursday that both sides were moving to ease tensions. "China is trying to cool down the people and appealed to them to avoid extreme activities," an English-language Xinhua report said on Thursday. Pending final approval from the Japanese cabinet, Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura will fly to Beijing for talks on Sunday, said Keiji Ide, a spokesman for the Japanese Embassy in Beijing. And Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, told reporters in Tokyo that he hoped to solve the dispute with China over the East China Sea through dialogue. But the Xinhua report was not carried in Chinese-language newspapers or Web sites, suggesting it was intended for foreign, not domestic, readers. And few issues seem more suited to exacerbate Chinese-Japanese tensions than the East China Sea dispute, where long-standing territorial frictions, mutual anxieties about military strength, and both countries' fears about their energy security intermingle. "I don't have any doubt that Sino-Japanese relations are going to get worse before they get better," said Alan Dupont, an expert on East Asian security at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney. "I can see very clearly how tensions could result in military clashes in the East China Sea." Equally, China has now more clearly linked its opposition to Japan's entry into the UN Security Council to what most Chinese say is Japan's failure to demonstrate remorse for its wartime occupation of China and other Asian countries. "Only countries that care about history and are able to win the trust of neighboring countries can play a large role in international affairs," said Qin, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, citing recent comments by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. Qin also pointedly suggested that China would support Germany's bid for a permanent seat on the Security Council, calling Germany a "country that follows a path of peaceful development." Chinese Web sites have posted messages calling for more mass protests against Japan over the weekend, to coincide with the Japanese foreign minister's visit. Hardening nationalist feelings will make it difficult for China's leaders to broker a compromise with Japan any time soon, said Zheng Yongnian, an expert on Chinese foreign policy and nationalism at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore. "But after all the recent events, it will be difficult for Chinese leaders to make any compromise due to rising popular nationalism," he said. "At best, China can manage this nationalist feeling, but not fully control it." Widespread Chinese resentment of Japan makes it difficult for China's leaders to reduce tensions without also sacrificing their own legitimacy, and it deters individual politicians from breaking ranks and exploring compromises, he said. "The tensions between Japan and China are now escalating from words into actions," said Zheng, "and people are beginning to worry that this sea dispute will evolve into a serious conflict."

== D. Cross-apply Cirincione from the soft power disad.

OR

D. Conflict will escalate to global nuclear war. Cirincione 2000 (Foreign Policy, 3-22, p. 146)

The blocks would fall quickest and hardest in Asia, where proliferation pressures are already building more quickly than anywhere else in the world. If a nuclear breakout takes place in Asia, then the international arms control agreements that have been painstakingly negotiated over the past 40 years will crumble. Moreover, the United States could find itself embroiled in its fourth war on the Asian continent in six decades--a costly rebuke to those who seek the safety of Fortress America by hiding behind national missile defenses. Consider what is already happening: North Korea continues to play guessing games with its nuclear and missile programs; South Korea wants its own missiles to match Pyongyang's; India and Pakistan shoot across borders while running a slow-motion nuclear arms race; China modernizes its nuclear arsenal amid tensions with Taiwan and the United States; Japan's vice defense minister is forced to resign after extolling the benefits of nuclear weapons; and Russia--whose Far East nuclear deployments alone make it the largest Asian nuclear power--struggles to maintain territorial coherence. Five of these states have nuclear weapons; the others are capable of constructing them. Like neutrons firing from a split atom, one nation's actions can trigger reactions throughout the region, which in turn, stimulate additional actions. These nations form an interlocking Asian nuclear reaction chain that vibrates dangerously with each new development. If the frequency and intensity of this reaction cycle increase, critical decisions taken by any one of these governments could cascade into the second great wave of nuclear-weapon proliferation, bringing regional and global economic and political instability and, perhaps, the first combat use of a nuclear weapon since 1945.